Suchergebnisse

Using a CGE (computable general equilibrium) model for Zimbabwe with 1991 as base period, this paper examines quantitatively the income and equity effects of macroeconomic reform measures in isolation and in conjunction with potentially complementary changes in agricultural sector policies. Some important features of the CGE model are an explicit focus on agriculture, distinction among various rural and urban household groups, and detailed specification of factor markets. Specific aspects of economic policy existing in the pre-reform benchmark year are taken into account in the base model, such as the administered setting of the foreign exchange rate, quantitative import restrictions, and government-determined maize prices for domestic producers and grain millers. The model makes use of a 1991 SAM (social accounting matrix) for Zimbabwe as database. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

The 1991 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Zimbabwe that we document in this paper is intended to provide benchmark data for economy-wide analysis under the MERRISA Project. Its construction is based on a three-step process: (1) building a macro SAM that presents the aggregative features of the Zimbabwean economy and serves as a control matrix for the micro SAM; (2) disaggregation into a complete but unbalanced micro SAM; and (3) balancing the disaggregated and complete micro SAM using the cross-entropy approach. The macro SAM entries are based on aggregates from a recent, significant revision of the Zimbabwe national accounts for 1991. The structure of the micro SAM is a disaggregated version of the macro SAM. The outcome is an 88 by 88 matrix that includes 36 activities, 27 commodities, 9 factors of production (4 labor, 3 capital, and 2 land categories), 5 households groups, and one account each for enterprises, government, investment/saving, and rest-of-the-world. Among the significant features of the Zimbabwean economy that are explicitly taken into account in the SAM structure are the importance of agriculture, the distinction between smallholder and large-scale commercial farms, home consumption by smallholder farm households, and the large marketing margins that reflect inefficiencies in trade and transport infrastructure. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

Three types of trade policy adjustments to deal with an unsustainable current account deficit are examined in this paper for their economywide income and equity effects, based on the results of simulation experiments using a CGE model of the Philippine economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) expectably decreases with import rationing and less markedly, with the imposition of a general import surtax; by contrast, adjustment through the reduction of tariffs leads to a larger GDP. The latter result, however, is counterbalanced by a substantial loss in government income. With respect to the distribution of income gains (and losses), the additional market distortions and rent-seeking that accompany the implementation of import rationing heavily discriminate in favor of Metro Manila households, whose average income is the highest among the five household groups distinguished in the model. Moving to a general import surtax represents an improvement in that non-Metro Manila households are penalized less. However, these first two policy options are deemed inferior to tariff liberalization--which yields larger income benefits to small-farm and other rural households relative to the more affluent Metro Manila, other urban, and large-farm households. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

Using an agriculture-focused CGE model for Zimbabwe with 1991 as base period, this paper examines quantitatively the income and equity effects of trade liberalization in isolation and in conjunction with potentially complementary changes in fiscal and land policies. Trade policy reform alone (dismantling of import and foreign exchange controls, and reduction of import taxes to a low uniform rate) is shown to increase aggregate disposable household income significantly. However, the least income gain accrues to smallholder farm households, which account for about four-fifths of the poor in Zimbabwe, so the equity impact is unfavorable. Concurrent implementation with specific changes in government expenditure and tax policies and two alternative stylized land redistribution schemes yields differing outcomes in terms of aggregate household income growth and its distribution. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

As in many other developing countries, the concerns about food security in Indonesia during the 1980s and early 1990s resulted in policies aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in food crops. The Government of Indonesia (GOI) combined price interventions and economic incentives to encourage agricultural production, especially of the staple crops. From 1985 to 1998, Indonesia started a series of domestic and trade reforms emanating from a combination of unilateral undertakings, the country's commitments to the WTO, and the government's agreement with the IMF following the 1997/98 financial crisis. This study computes nominal protection rates and producer support estimates (NPR and PSE) for Indonesia for the period 1985-2003 for six agricultural commodities, rice, maize, sugar, soybeans, crude palm oil, and natural rubber (representing more than two-thirds of Indonesian agricultural output) in an attempt to quantify the net effects of these policies. The NPRs and PSEs computed for Indonesia show that in spite of the reforms, the GOI has protected its agriculture over the past twenty years, although not uniformly across commodities. Although the reforms went a long way in reducing trade and domestic regulations on agricultural products, the study results demonstrate a return to protection for some commodities in recent years. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; MTID

For the health community, globalization offers opportunities but also poses important challenges. Dramatic progress has been made in the area of health over the past forty years; however, improvements have been unequally distributed across regions. Developing countries share a disproportionate burden of avoidable mortality and disability, primarily attributable to preventable infectious diseases, malnutrition, and complications of childbirth. Globalization affects global health, which in turn may improve or worsen the health of the poor in developing countries. This paper reviews the different meanings of globalization and indicators for some of its components. Using a simple framework, it examines the channels, which links globalization and health outcomes and identifies among them five main pathways. The first two pathways connect globalization with general outcomes on the economy and the government of developing countries, which affect the global health situation. The last three connect directly globalization with health, through its effect on institutions, nutrition, and the environment. In conclusion, this paper presents some policy and institutional responses that seek to reduce the negative and enhance the positive effects of globalization on health in developing countries ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

In the past two decades, many countries in the Near East and North Africa region have reformed the agricultural sector by lowering agricultural tariffs, liberalizing domestic prices and reducing consumer food subsidies. However, trade restrictions and domestic price support mechanisms are still prevalent for a few strategic commodities (such as wheat), and there is wide divergence among the countries in terms of the extent and depth of liberalization. Under the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership launched in 1995, ongoing and future bilateral free trade agreements between the European Union and several Arab Mediterranean countries could lead to further trade liberalization. In addition, some countries have recently signed free trade agreements with the United States of America, and more countries in the Near East and North Africa region are expected to sign bilateral trade agreements with the United States in the near future. ; PR ; IFPRI2; Theme 2; Subtheme 2.1; GRP2 ; MTID

This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world tobacco prices on the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies are much larger than that on the Turkish economy. In the case of China, tobacco production, marketing, cigarette processing, distribution, and foreign trade are strictly controlled by the government and tobacco trade accounted for a small share of production and consumption. Thus, the decline in the world tobacco prices would hardly affect China's tobacco sector. The study shows that it is highly risky for a developing country to highly depend on exports of a single agricultural commodity. To reduce such risk, a country has to create a more diversified and flexible export structure. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1

There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.